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India is one of the world’s fasting growing economies. It had been touted as an economic and geopolitical counterweight to China. But recently its growth fell to its slowest pace in six years. Investment has weakened, and unemployment has risen.So what’s causing the slowdown, and how can it be reversed?Since the turn of the century, India’s economy has grown at a rapid rate,helping transform the country.Between 2006 and 2016, rising incomes lifted 271 million people out of poverty, meaning the proportion of Indians still living in poverty has fallen dramatically, from around 55% to 28%.Access to electricity has also improved.
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印度是世界上发展速度最快的经济体之一。它被人们吹捧为一股可以制衡中国的经济以及地缘政治力量。然而最近印度的经济增速却下降至6年以来的最低水平。优德棋牌_[官网入口]投资疲软,失业率也在上升。所以到底是什么导致了印度经济增速的放缓,他们又该如何才能扭转这种局面呢?自本世纪初以来,印度经济一直在实现着高速增长,这为他们的国家带来的变化。2006年至2016年,印度民众收入的增加促使2.71亿人摆脱了贫困,印度的贫困人口比例大幅下降,从当初的55%左右下降至28%。优德棋牌_[官网入口]电力供应情况也有所改观。



In 2007 just 70% of the population had accessto power. By 2017, that grew to nearly 93%.More recently, the Indian government constructed around 110 million toilets -- a huge step towards better sanitation designed to prevent the practice of open defecation. It''s a signature program of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, known as Swachh Bharat, or Clean India.All this development has been supported by a booming economy, but as of late, that expansion has begun to run out of steam. In the third quarter of 2019, India’s economic output grew by 4.5% - making it the first time the country’s growth dipped below 5% since 2013. For context, 4.5% growth is still much higher than that of developed economies like the U.S.,

在2007年,印度只有70%的人口可以用上电。而到了2017年,这一比例已经上升至93%。近年来印度政府更是修建了大约1.1亿间厕所,目的是在于防止印度群众随地大小便,这一举措极大地改善了印度的卫生条件。这便是总理纳伦德拉莫迪的标志性项目,该计划被誉为“清洁印度”计划。蓬勃发展的经济为所有这些进步提供了助力,然而如今印度的发展却开始逐渐失去了动力。在2019年第三季度,印度的经济增长率仅为4.5%,这是该国经济增速自2013年以来首次下降至5%以下。不过相较而言,4.5%的增长率依旧远高于美国等发达国家经济体。

But with 12 million Indians entering the workforce every year, economists say the country needs annual growth rates to stay above nine percent to ensure there are enough jobs.So, what’s causing this recent slowdown?Well, government officials argue turbulence in international financial markets is at fault.Political uncertainty and  U.S.-China trade tensions  mean confidence levels among investors and consumers everywhere have sunk.

然而如今每年都有1200万印度人口进入劳动力市场,经济学家指出,印度需要保持每年9%以上的增长率才能确保这些人拥有足够的就业机会。所以究竟是什么导致了印度经济增长最近的放缓呢?印度的政府官员认为国际金融市场的动荡不安是罪魁祸首。政治的不确定性以及中美间紧张的贸易氛围让投资者和消费者的信心大受打击。



It employs about 35 million people and makes up about 7% of India’s GDP. Last summer,
the industry suffered its worst sales performance in nearly 19 years, and reports suggest tens
of thousands of workers have been laid off.The agriculture and construction sectors have also been hurting, with small and medium businesses being hit the hardest.

印度汽车产业雇佣了2500万人,它的产值占到了印度总GDP的7%。去年夏天,印度汽车行业遭遇了近19年以来最糟糕的业绩表现,行业报告还指出成千上万的工人因此遭到解雇,农业和建筑业也受到了影响,而中小企业则遭受了最大的打击。

The country’s unemployment rate has been on an overall upward trend since July 2017,
rising several percentage points to 7.7%.Higher unemployment means consumers are buying less, leading to the unfortunate cycle of slower manufacturing, production, investment and job creation.A survey from the Reserve Bank of India found consumer confidence has fallen to its lowestlevel in five years. But Indians still have a positive outlook for the future, with most consumers expecting to feel more optimistic in a year.

自2017年7月以来,印度的失业率总体处于上升趋势,目前已经达到了7.7%。优德棋牌_[官网入口]失业率的上升意味着消费者们将会减少购买量,从而导致制造业,投资和就业市场陷入一个恶性的循环。印度央行最近的一项调查指出,消费者的信心已经降至5年来的最低水平。优德棋牌_[官网入口]然而印度人民依旧对未来保持乐观,大多数消费者们对一年后的印度经济持有更加乐观的态度。

However, if things don’t improve, debt could become another issue. Expecting better days ahead, many households have continued to spend, by taking out loans and dipping into savings.Household savings as a proportion of GDP has fallen from 23.6% to 17.2%. Meanwhile, household debt has surged to 10.9% during the same period.

优德棋牌_[官网入口]然而如果情况无法有所改观的话,债务可能会成为印度经济所要面临的另一个问题。由于印度众多家庭对未来持有乐观的态度,因此他们依旧在继续通过贷款和动用储蓄来进行消费活动。印度家庭储蓄占GDP比例已经从23.6%下降至17.2%。与此同时,印度家庭债务总量占gdp比例却在同一时期里飙升至10.9%。

Critics say the government in New Delhi has failed to spot these risks and hasn’t done enough to get the economy moving again.The Reserve Bank of India''s former governor Raghuram Rajan recently blamed the lack of significant reforms since the global financial crisis.Even the country’s chief economic advisor recently admitted reforms are needed to make India more friendly to investors. India has cut its corporate tax rate,but labor and land laws are still extremely strict. He also says the country needs to become pro-market, rather than just pro-business, to avoid costly government bailouts of failing sectors.

批评人士指出,新德里政府并没有意识到当前这些风险,也没有采取足够的措施来推动经济的复苏。印度央行前行长拉古拉姆拉詹指责印度政府在全球金融危机发生以来缺乏重大变革。就连印度的首席经济顾问也在最近承认印度需要进行改革,以为投资者提供更加友好的商业环境。印度目前已经降低了企业税,然而劳动法以及土地法却依旧非常严苛。并且他还指出,这个国家需要成为一个亲市场的国家,而非仅仅是一个亲商业的国家,这样才能避免政府对那些陷入困境的行业施予代价昂贵的援助。



The country''s shifting export policy has harmed several of its largest industries, particularly clothing.India''s share of the global apparel market has increased only slightly in the past 20 years.
And though the Indian workforce is vast, both Bangladesh and Vietnam now export more.On top of that, the country’s import tariffs on average are much higher than the world’s biggest economies. They’re also among the highest of the world’s emerging economies.Even U.S. President Donald Trump has called for the country to bring down its duties.

印度不断变化着的出口政策已经损害了几个最大的行业,尤其是服装业。过去20年以来,印度在全球服装市场上的份额仅仅是略微有所增长。尽管印度拥有庞大的劳动人口,然而服装出口量增加较为显著的却是孟加拉国以及越南。最为重要的是,印度目前的进口关税远远高于当今世界上的几个最大的经济体。他们是新兴经济体中关税最高的国家之一。甚至连美国总统特朗普都曾呼吁印度降低其关税。

But let’s take a step back. Has India’s growth actually slowed as much as we think?The government’s former chief economic advisor Arvind Subramanian caused a fair bit of controversy in June 2019, when he claimed the country’s official stats probably overstated GDP growth by 2.5% from 2011-2012 to 2016-2017. He says the bottom line is that India never recovered from the global financial crisis. The government denies this.

不过让我们先后退一步,印度如今的经济增长真如我们想象得那么慢吗?印度政府的前任首席经济顾问Arvind Subramanian在2019年6月发表的讲话引发了不小的争议,他声称印度的官方统计数字很可能夸大了该国在2011-2012年以及2016-2017年期间的gpd增长率(提高了2.5%)。他还指出,最为关键的是,印度从未从全球金融危机中恢复过来。然而印度政府否认了他的观点。

But none of this has hurt Prime Minister Modi at the polls -he won by a landslide in the most recent election. So how will he keep his promise and double the size of the economy by 2025?Many economists insist a well-explained economic vision would help. As would more long-term investment, better skilled workers and improvements to infrastructure.It may not matter who or what is to blame for India''s recent economic challenges, but bottom line - India''s economic growth needs to bounce back, and fast.

不过所有这些事情都没有影响到莫迪总理的支持率--他在最近举行的选举中以压倒性的优势获胜。所以莫迪将如何兑现自己在“2025年年底前让印度经济规模翻上一倍”的承诺呢?许多经济学家指出一份脉络清晰的经济愿景将有所帮助。此外更多的长期投资,更好的技术工人以及更完善的基础设施也不可或缺。究竟谁或者什么因素需要为印度经济目前所面临的挑战负责或许并不重要,然而重要的是--印度的经济增长必须反弹,而且是迅速反弹。